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What to expect from the IRCC in 2023? Here are our predictions about the 2023 Canadian immigration programs. There will be disappointment, surprises, and faster processing. A mix of bad and good news, what else can you expect from the Canadian immigration department?
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* Less IRCC officers will be assigned to TRV application processing compared to 2021 and 2022.We’ve seen 3-7% decrease in the estimated total officers who will be assigned this year for TRV application processing. This can only mean one point, which is much higher dependence on AI Processing, which takes us to the next prediction.
* More AI processing of TRV applications such as visitor visas, visitor records, study permits, and work permits.
A: Lighthouse AI based risk assessment tool of the IRCC. Checks for red flags such as fraud and other risk factors in applications. (It was previously called Watchtower). It is helping officers in assessing risks for applications. This tool can be used in all types of applications, even for PR streams. It is a data mining AI tool which has been in the making for a while by IRCC.
B: Chinook decision making support platform is obviously going to be the main platform used for major decision making for TRV’s – although they have started using it for PR applications as of 2021, both in Shanghai and other visa processing centres. It is a very controversial system which most applicants and immigration practitioners are not comfortable with. Interestingly enough this system will grow and expand as time goes on. They have been monitoring even which immigration representative was on file when the application was submitted. Our prediction is that the Chinook system will be used to identify immigration representatives who have been flagged for fraudulent documentation, and the ones which continue to take on cases to court for Judicial Review, so the officer is aware of how to handle the application before they start reviewing it. This is obviously very biased, but what isn’t with the IRCC?
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More countries will be expanded as part of the ‘partial’ visa lift program. Previous examples of countries participating in this program is Brazil where applicants with US visas are eligible for an electronic Travel authorization (eTA) instead of needing to apply for a visitor visa before travelling to Canada. IRCC is considering expanding this program to several new countries for applicants who meet certain criteria and potentially have a valid US visa. This will be good news for many countries, and our prediction is that Central & South American countries such as Colombia could be part of this program, maybe Peru, some Caribbean islands, and it remains to be seen if Africa, Asia or Middle-Eastern countries will be part of it – which we highly doubt.
* Newfoundland PNP provincial nominee and AIP applicants will be prioritized faster by the IRCC for PR processing – as they had utilized the least number of their quota applications during the past few years.
* More Provincial Nominee applicants will be refused for work permits under the entrepreneur program if the ‘significant benefit for Canada’ is not clearly explained and outlined in their application. This is a new internal policy with the IRCC.
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The controversial Startup Visa program. We will continue to see approval rates of 50-60% max, but we expect a bit faster processing of PR applications under this program, and the refusal rates for work permits to stay high for non-visa exempt applicants.
We do expect the program to change from the direct PR stream eventually but not at the moment and most likely not this year. We do expect more provinces to start introducing PNP Startup Visa programs with their own criteria in the near future.
We also expect IRCC to continue not to trust any of the designated organizations on the approved SUV list who can issue Letters of Support – this seems to be an ongoing theme for the past 2 years.
Iranian applications will become the highest refusal region vs volume in all of 2023 for TRV’s, with the greatest number of JR’s.
By the end of 2023, we expect a TR to PR pathway for Ukrainian nationals to be introduced allowing the applicants with work permits inside Canada options for Canadian PR based on specific criteria.
We expect more programs by IRCC to be introduced for fast-track francophone (French speaking applicants) immigration to Canada – both temporary and permanent programs. This is a top priority for the Canadian government this year and going forward into the subsequent years.
About the caregiver pilot program: It’s tough to say. There is a lot of pressure to change the program from the current structure and cap. We cannot predict about this program at the moment, except that nobody is happy with it.
Faster visitor visa processing and study permit processing by the IRCC in 2023. This is expected and as per new policies that have been in the media, we do expect updates by IRCC in the next 30-60 days to inform the public of how they will be clearing the backlog this year. Our prediction is that 50% of the backlog or more will be cleared this year. We call it the ‘IRCC application Purge’ – they should make a Netflix movie about it.
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We expect IRCC to continue with their draws under this Federal skilled immigration PR stream, but do not expect the pool of applicants in this program to drop or more applicants to be invited. Based on the 3 year immigration plan announced by the Canadian government, the number of files to be processed under this program will not be significantly changed. The occupation specific draws is the only key change that everyone is expecting this year based on the new TEER system.
There will be no new business immigration programs announced by the Federal government in 2023. But we do expect Federal Self Employed processing to improve processing times from 3.5 years to lower levels. We surely hope they do, nobody wants to apply and wait nearly 3.5 years for a Canadian PR.
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